The transient behavior of the M/Ek/2 queue and steady-state simulation

The probabilistic structure for the transient M/Ek/2 queue is derived in discrete time, where Ek denotes a k-Erlang distribution. This queue has a two-dimensional state-space. Expressions for the expected delay in queue are formulated in terms of transition probabilities. Results are numerically evaluated for a few cases. The convergence behavior is similar to that seen in previous work on queues with one-dimensional state spaces. The implications for initialization of steady-state simulations are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27548/1/0000592.pd

Why simheuristics? : Benefits, limitations, and best practices when combining metaheuristics with simulation

Many decision-making processes in our society involve NP-hard optimization problems. The largescale, dynamism, and uncertainty of these problems constrain the potential use of stand-alone optimization methods. The same applies for isolated simulation models, which do not have the potential to find optimal solutions in a combinatorial environment. This paper discusses the utilization of modelling and solving approaches based on the integration of simulation with metaheuristics. These 'simheuristic' algorithms, which constitute a natural extension of both metaheuristics and simulation techniques, should be used as a 'first-resort' method when addressing large-scale and NP-hard optimization problems under uncertainty -which is a frequent case in real-life applications. We outline the benefits and limitations of simheuristic algorithms, provide numerical experiments that validate our arguments, review some recent publications, and outline the best practices to consider during their design and implementation stages

Perceived role of the veterinarian in promoting dairy cattle welfare

Improving the lives of animals in agricultural systems has primarily focused on minimizing negative experiences. Research is needed on the promotion of positive experiences (pleasure, enjoyment, play, choice, happiness) for animals and the role of veterinarians in their promotion. Our aims were to describe how Canadian bovine veterinarians and veterinary students perceive the role of a veterinarian in positive vs. negative experiences for dairy cows and to analyze the rationale provided to explain their answers. Canadian veterinary practitioners (n = 78) and veterinary students (n = 148) responded to an online cross-sectional survey and were asked, on a 7-point scale, how important the role of a veterinarian is to promote practices that influence the experience of dairy cows. We used qualitative description to analyse participants’ open-ended text responses. Practices to minimize negative experiences were most important (mean ± SE; 6.8 ± 0.03), a balance of positive and negative experiences was less important (6.4 ± 0.05), and encouragement of positive experiences scored lowest (6.0 ± 0.06), although all scored highly. Four themes were identified to explain participants’ reasoning regarding their perceived role of a veterinarian in the promotion of dairy cattle welfare, centered on: the animal, the producer, the veterinarian, and society. Participants indicated that promoting positive experiences was less important than decreasing negative experiences (5.9 ± 0.09). There were four themes identified to explain participants’ reasoning regarding the relative importance of promotion of positive experiences versus decreasing negative experiences which centered on: frameworks to compare positive and negative experiences, impacts on the animal, the participant’s view of their role, and the practicality of implementation. These results indicate modest differences in valuing avoidance of negative vs. promotion of positive welfare. There were no differences in the quantitative analyses between veterinarians and veterinary students. We conclude that veterinarians are favorably disposed to positive aspects of welfare for dairy cows but may be more focussed on avoidance of negative aspects of welfare

Exploratory analysis of methods for automated classification of laboratory test orders into syndromic groups in veterinary medicine

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes-syndromic surveillance-using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro =. 955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input

Limitations of variable number of tandem repeat typing identified through whole genome sequencing of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis on a national and herd level

Background: Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative bacterium of Johne’s disease in dairy cattle, is widespread in the Canadian dairy industry and has significant economic and animal welfare implications. An understanding of the population dynamics of MAP can be used to identify introduction events, improve control efforts and target transmission pathways, although this requires an adequate understanding of MAP diversity and distribution between herds and across the country. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) offers a detailed assessment of the SNP-level diversity and genetic relationship of isolates, whereas several molecular typing techniques used to investigate the molecular epidemiology of MAP, such as variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) typing, target relatively unstable repetitive elements in the genome that may be too unpredictable to draw accurate conclusions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diversity of bovine MAP isolates in Canadian dairy herds using WGS and then determine if VNTR typing can distinguish truly related and unrelated isolates.<p></p> Results: Phylogenetic analysis based on 3,039 SNPs identified through WGS of 124 MAP isolates identified eight genetically distinct subtypes in dairy herds from seven Canadian provinces, with the dominant type including over 80% of MAP isolates. VNTR typing of 527 MAP isolates identified 12 types, including “bison type” isolates, from seven different herds. At a national level, MAP isolates differed from each other by 1–2 to 239–240 SNPs, regardless of whether they belonged to the same or different VNTR types. A herd-level analysis of MAP isolates demonstrated that VNTR typing may both over-estimate and under-estimate the relatedness of MAP isolates found within a single herd.<p></p> Conclusions: The presence of multiple MAP subtypes in Canada suggests multiple introductions into the country including what has now become one dominant type, an important finding for Johne’s disease control. VNTR typing often failed to identify closely and distantly related isolates, limiting the applicability of using this typing scheme to study the molecular epidemiology of MAP at a national and herd-level.<p></p&gt

Retrospective time series analysis of veterinary laboratory data : Preparing a historical baseline for cluster detection in syndromic surveillance

The practice of disease surveillance has shifted in the last two decades towards the introduction of systems capable of early detection of disease. Modern biosurveillance systems explore different sources of pre-diagnostic data, such as patient's chief complaint upon emergency visit or laboratory test orders. These sources of data can provide more rapid detection than traditional surveillance based on case confirmation, but are less specific, and therefore their use poses challenges related to the presence of background noise and unlabelled temporal aberrations in historical data. The overall goal of this study was to carry out retrospective analysis using three years of laboratory test submissions to the Animal Health Laboratory in the province of Ontario, Canada, in order to prepare the data for use in syndromic surveillance. Daily cases were grouped into syndromes and counts for each syndrome were monitored on a daily basis when medians were higher than one case per day, and weekly otherwise. Poisson regression accounting for day-of-week and month was able to capture the day-of-week effect with minimal influence from temporal aberrations. Applying Poisson regression in an iterative manner, that removed data points above the predicted 95th percentile of daily counts, allowed for the removal of these aberrations in the absence of labelled outbreaks, while maintaining the day-of-week effect that was present in the original data. This resulted in the construction of time series that represent the baseline patterns over the past three years, free of temporal aberrations. The final method was thus able to remove temporal aberrations while keeping the original explainable effects in the data, did not need a training period free of aberrations, had minimal adjustment to the aberrations present in the raw data, and did not require labelled outbreaks. Moreover, it was readily applicable to the weekly data by substituting Poisson regression with moving 95th percentiles

Invited review : Selective use of antimicrobials in dairy cattle at drying-off

Administering intramammary antimicrobials to all mammary quarters of dairy cows at drying-off [i.e., blanket dry cow therapy (BDCT)] has been a mainstay of mastitis prevention and control. However, as udder health has considerably improved over recent decades with reductions in intramammary infection prevalence at drying-off and the introduction of teat sealants, BDCT may no longer be necessary on all dairy farms, thereby supporting antimicrobial stewardship efforts. This narrative review summarizes available literature regarding current dry cow therapy practices and associ-ated impacts of selective dry cow therapy (SDCT) on udder health, milk production, economics, antimicro-bial use, and antimicrobial resistance. Various methods to identify infections at drying-off that could benefit from antimicrobial treatment are described for select-ing cows or mammary quarters for treatment, includ-ing utilizing somatic cell count thresholds, pathogen identification, previous clinical mastitis history, or a combination of criteria. Selection methods may be enacted at the herd, cow, or quarter levels. Producers' and veterinarians' motivations for antimicrobial use are discussed. Based on review findings, SDCT can be ad-opted without negative consequences for udder health and milk production, and concurrent teat sealant use is recommended, especially in udder quarters receiving no intramammary antimicrobials. Furthermore, herd selection should be considered for SDCT implementa-tion in addition to cow or quarter selection, as BDCT may still be temporarily necessary in some herds for optimal mastitis control. Costs and benefits of SDCT vary among herds, whereas impacts on antimicrobial resistance remain unclear. In summary, SDCT is a vi-able management option for maintaining udder health and milk production while improving antimicrobial stewardship in the dairy industry.Peer reviewe

Invited review : Selective use of antimicrobials in dairy cattle at drying-off

Administering intramammary antimicrobials to all mammary quarters of dairy cows at drying-off [i.e., blanket dry cow therapy (BDCT)] has been a mainstay of mastitis prevention and control. However, as udder health has considerably improved over recent decades with reductions in intramammary infection prevalence at drying-off and the introduction of teat sealants, BDCT may no longer be necessary on all dairy farms, thereby supporting antimicrobial stewardship efforts. This narrative review summarizes available literature regarding current dry cow therapy practices and associ-ated impacts of selective dry cow therapy (SDCT) on udder health, milk production, economics, antimicro-bial use, and antimicrobial resistance. Various methods to identify infections at drying-off that could benefit from antimicrobial treatment are described for select-ing cows or mammary quarters for treatment, includ-ing utilizing somatic cell count thresholds, pathogen identification, previous clinical mastitis history, or a combination of criteria. Selection methods may be enacted at the herd, cow, or quarter levels. Producers' and veterinarians' motivations for antimicrobial use are discussed. Based on review findings, SDCT can be ad-opted without negative consequences for udder health and milk production, and concurrent teat sealant use is recommended, especially in udder quarters receiving no intramammary antimicrobials. Furthermore, herd selection should be considered for SDCT implementa-tion in addition to cow or quarter selection, as BDCT may still be temporarily necessary in some herds for optimal mastitis control. Costs and benefits of SDCT vary among herds, whereas impacts on antimicrobial resistance remain unclear. In summary, SDCT is a vi-able management option for maintaining udder health and milk production while improving antimicrobial stewardship in the dairy industry.Peer reviewe

Invited review: Selective treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle

Treatment of clinical mastitis (CM) and use of antimicrobials for dry cow therapy are responsible for the majority of animal-defined daily doses of antimicrobial use (AMU) on dairy farms. However, advancements made in the last decade have enabled excluding nonsevere CM cases from antimicrobial treatment that have a high probability of cure without antimicrobials (no bacterial causes or gram-negative, excluding Klebsiella spp.) and cases with a low bacteriological cure rate (chronic cases). These advancements include availability of rapid diagnostic tests and improved udder health management practices, which reduced the incidence and infection pressure of contagious CM pathogens. This review informed an evidence-based protocol for selective CM treatment decisions based on a combination of rapid diagnostic test results, review of somatic cell count and CM records, and elucidated consequences in terms of udder health, AMU, and farm economics. Relatively fast identification of the causative agent is the most important factor in selective CM treatment protocols. Many reported studies did not indicate detrimental udder health consequences (e.g., reduced clinical or bacteriological cures, increased somatic cell count, increased culling rate, or increased recurrence of CM later in lactation) after initiating selective CM treatment protocols using on-farm testing. The magnitude of AMU reduction following a selective CM treatment protocol implementation depended on the causal pathogen distribution and protocol characteristics. Uptake of selective treatment of nonsevere CM cases differs across regions and is dependent on management systems and adoption of udder health programs. No economic losses or animal welfare issues are expected when adopting a selective versus blanket CM treatment protocol. Therefore, selective CM treatment of nonsevere cases can be a practical tool to aid AMU reduction on dairy farms